Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions (23)
Latest CFHC News
8:30AM EDT 7 September 2024 Update
An apparent increase in the risk of "home-grown" types this year neutralizes the unexpected lack of "Main Development Region" systems.
There is a striking well-developed Low off the coast of South Carolina this morning that by many measures has already acquired significant tropical characteristics. This has popped just within a few short hours and is not yet noted by NHC, but will likely be so soon if the cyclone holds. At present, it is tracking northeast. It is unclear how tied it remains to the parent non-tropical stationary front that has spawned several other less-impressive lows, including former 90L.
Elsewhere, the Wave now entering the southwestern Gulf has 60% NHC odds of development within the next few days and could pose a threat to Mexico, Texas and/or Louisiana.
5:30PM EDT 5 September 2024 Update
Above: Invest 90L (NW Gulf) Invest 99L (West of Bermuda) and Tropical Wave (NW Caribbean)
Three of the five AOIs in the Atlantic basin being monitored by NHC are arguably better candidates for development than advertised from the last NHC update, and as they are not just much closer to land, but already impacting large portions of the northwest and northern Gulf, Central America and at least indirectly the east coast and Bermuda and eastern Mexico, interests in these and nearby locations may want to begin paying closer attention and prepare for additional locally-issued and eventually potentially nationally-issued Watches and Warnings.
In addition to these three features that have the potential to become officiated tropical or subtropical cyclones, the parent front of 90L and 99L itself is wringing out copious moisture across the south including Florida resulting in dangerous flash flooding.
11AM EDT 5 September 2024 Update
Both the NW Gulf Low and Invest 99L off the east coast continue to develop and are likely to produce conditions much like an official Depression/Storm regardless of classification. We have opened up a Lounge on the NW Gulf Low at this time: 90L Forecast Lounge
9:30AM EDT 5 September 2024 Update
The Area of Interest in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will likely have impacts much the same as a tropical depression whether or not development occurs, but there is also a window, however truncated by an approaching front, to become an official TD or storm, and those from the upper Texas coast to the Florida panhandle may want to give it some more attention. This feature is not yet Invest-tagged, but is now officially highlighted by NHC.
The AOI off the east coast is now Invest 99L and has a small window to acquire enough subtropical or tropical characteristics to be named.
In total, there are now 5 NHC-tracked AOIs in the Atlantic.
Original Update
As of today, September 4, we now have four official lemon yellow slight areas of interest, plus one non-official area of interest already in the Gulf. While the overall background state of the Atlantic basin is far from ideal for TC genesis, it may be a little better than the past few weeks, and with this many disturbances to watch, one wouldn't be surprised to see something pop.
Considering that two of these systems are already very close to CONUS, we are starting a new article at this time. Not a single one of these AOIs is yet Invest-tagged, but conceivably could be relatively soon, and we will edit to provide links to its/their respective models, forecast lounges and such, as warranted.
It is already worth drawing extra attention to the AOI in the northwestern Gulf that is not yet highlighted by NHC. This broad area of low pressure with abundant tropical moisture to work with, but presently associated with the front that is also connected to the AOI off the east coast, could acquire some tropical characteristics over the next few days and separate from the front, and there are a few model runs to suggest that it either merges with the wave now centered south of Cuba and forecast to enter the southern GOM or develop on its own while staying further north. Regardless of development, heavy tropical rains are likely to persist across sections of the northwestern to central Gulf of Mexico where numerous Flash Flood Watches and Warnings are underway with more likely to come.
An apparent increase in the risk of "home-grown" types this year neutralizes the unexpected lack of "Main Development Region" systems.
There is a striking well-developed Low off the coast of South Carolina this morning that by many measures has already acquired significant tropical characteristics. This has popped just within a few short hours and is not yet noted by NHC, but will likely be so soon if the cyclone holds. At present, it is tracking northeast. It is unclear how tied it remains to the parent non-tropical stationary front that has spawned several other less-impressive lows, including former 90L.
Elsewhere, the Wave now entering the southwestern Gulf has 60% NHC odds of development within the next few days and could pose a threat to Mexico, Texas and/or Louisiana.
5:30PM EDT 5 September 2024 Update
Above: Invest 90L (NW Gulf) Invest 99L (West of Bermuda) and Tropical Wave (NW Caribbean)
Three of the five AOIs in the Atlantic basin being monitored by NHC are arguably better candidates for development than advertised from the last NHC update, and as they are not just much closer to land, but already impacting large portions of the northwest and northern Gulf, Central America and at least indirectly the east coast and Bermuda and eastern Mexico, interests in these and nearby locations may want to begin paying closer attention and prepare for additional locally-issued and eventually potentially nationally-issued Watches and Warnings.
In addition to these three features that have the potential to become officiated tropical or subtropical cyclones, the parent front of 90L and 99L itself is wringing out copious moisture across the south including Florida resulting in dangerous flash flooding.
11AM EDT 5 September 2024 Update
Both the NW Gulf Low and Invest 99L off the east coast continue to develop and are likely to produce conditions much like an official Depression/Storm regardless of classification. We have opened up a Lounge on the NW Gulf Low at this time: 90L Forecast Lounge
9:30AM EDT 5 September 2024 Update
The Area of Interest in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will likely have impacts much the same as a tropical depression whether or not development occurs, but there is also a window, however truncated by an approaching front, to become an official TD or storm, and those from the upper Texas coast to the Florida panhandle may want to give it some more attention. This feature is not yet Invest-tagged, but is now officially highlighted by NHC.
The AOI off the east coast is now Invest 99L and has a small window to acquire enough subtropical or tropical characteristics to be named.
In total, there are now 5 NHC-tracked AOIs in the Atlantic.
Original Update
As of today, September 4, we now have four official lemon yellow slight areas of interest, plus one non-official area of interest already in the Gulf. While the overall background state of the Atlantic basin is far from ideal for TC genesis, it may be a little better than the past few weeks, and with this many disturbances to watch, one wouldn't be surprised to see something pop.
Considering that two of these systems are already very close to CONUS, we are starting a new article at this time. Not a single one of these AOIs is yet Invest-tagged, but conceivably could be relatively soon, and we will edit to provide links to its/their respective models, forecast lounges and such, as warranted.
It is already worth drawing extra attention to the AOI in the northwestern Gulf that is not yet highlighted by NHC. This broad area of low pressure with abundant tropical moisture to work with, but presently associated with the front that is also connected to the AOI off the east coast, could acquire some tropical characteristics over the next few days and separate from the front, and there are a few model runs to suggest that it either merges with the wave now centered south of Cuba and forecast to enter the southern GOM or develop on its own while staying further north. Regardless of development, heavy tropical rains are likely to persist across sections of the northwestern to central Gulf of Mexico where numerous Flash Flood Watches and Warnings are underway with more likely to come.
Invest 91L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 91L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 90L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 90L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 90L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 99L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 99L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Central Pacific gets hot and the Atlantic is not
Posted: 09:04 PM 22 August 2024 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 04:18 AM 25-Aug EDT
9:15PM HST 24 August 2024 (3:15AM EST 25 August 2024) Update
Special Advisory products could be coming soon (Hurricane Hone)
7:50PM HST 24 August 2024 Update
Hone looks to be on a strengthening run as well as tracking a touch north of forecast heading towards impact on the Big Island. Tropical Storm conditions have begun, and preps to protect life and property should be taken seriously and moved to completion. Recon is back in Hone now and will give a much clearer picture of the cyclone's intensity and prospects, but so far, infrared satellite as well as radar, including velocity, suggests a potential for a hurricane prior to passage.
5:00PM HST/11:00PM EDT 23 August 2024 Update
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Hawaii County
NHC
1:00AM EDT 23 August 2024 Update
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.
Original Update
In a very unusual and almost completely unexpected turn of events, Hawaii is under threat, while Atlantic-side islands and coastal lands including other US states and territories are still almost completely free of imminent tropical concern during the final days of August.
Today, Tropical Storm Hone has formed from Tropical Depression One in the central Pacific. Models increasingly put Hawaii in the potential track of even a direct strike from this system. In addition, behind Hone, now Major Hurricane Gilma in the eastern Pacific could follow.
We do not list Pacific tropical cyclones in the bar under "Current Storms," but we do have Forecast Lounges already up and will continue to update the main page, Lounges and social media sites given the genuine risk to the Hawaiian islands. These are islands not accustomed to impacts from even "weak" tropical storms, with hills and mountains potentially squeezing out far more rainfall than what might typically fall, all while creating pathways for dangerous floods and mudslides. Additionally, higher elevations could experience much stronger gusty winds, while dangerous surf and rip currents affect the shoreline.
A Tropical Storm Watch may be issued for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands by Friday.
Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Lounge
Hurricane Gilma Forecast Lounge
Special Advisory products could be coming soon (Hurricane Hone)
7:50PM HST 24 August 2024 Update
Hone looks to be on a strengthening run as well as tracking a touch north of forecast heading towards impact on the Big Island. Tropical Storm conditions have begun, and preps to protect life and property should be taken seriously and moved to completion. Recon is back in Hone now and will give a much clearer picture of the cyclone's intensity and prospects, but so far, infrared satellite as well as radar, including velocity, suggests a potential for a hurricane prior to passage.
5:00PM HST/11:00PM EDT 23 August 2024 Update
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Hawaii County
NHC
Quote:
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 149.3 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion toward the west is expected to continue over the next several days as the forward speed gradually slows. On the forecast track, the center of Hone is expected to pass near or south of the Big Island Saturday night into early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and may become a hurricane by Sunday, followed by weakening late Sunday and beyond.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
1:00AM EDT 23 August 2024 Update
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii.
Quote:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.
RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward.
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Hone are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Original Update
In a very unusual and almost completely unexpected turn of events, Hawaii is under threat, while Atlantic-side islands and coastal lands including other US states and territories are still almost completely free of imminent tropical concern during the final days of August.
Today, Tropical Storm Hone has formed from Tropical Depression One in the central Pacific. Models increasingly put Hawaii in the potential track of even a direct strike from this system. In addition, behind Hone, now Major Hurricane Gilma in the eastern Pacific could follow.
We do not list Pacific tropical cyclones in the bar under "Current Storms," but we do have Forecast Lounges already up and will continue to update the main page, Lounges and social media sites given the genuine risk to the Hawaiian islands. These are islands not accustomed to impacts from even "weak" tropical storms, with hills and mountains potentially squeezing out far more rainfall than what might typically fall, all while creating pathways for dangerous floods and mudslides. Additionally, higher elevations could experience much stronger gusty winds, while dangerous surf and rip currents affect the shoreline.
A Tropical Storm Watch may be issued for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands by Friday.
Tropical Storm Hone Forecast Lounge
Hurricane Gilma Forecast Lounge
Hurricane Ernesto
Posted: 05:06 PM 11 August 2024 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:32 PM 14-Aug EDT
7:30PM EDT 16 August 2024 Update
Satellite imagery suggests that Ernesto may be intensifying a bit heading into a direct strike on Bermuda. Given Ernesto's very large windfield and off and on intrusions of dry air, this may not necessarily result in an increase in maximum sustained winds about its core, but could alternatively create a more sustained strong to damaging wind event. Either could be of concern.
Of greatest concern is likely to be the unusually high rainfall totals that are expected, with widespread 6 to 9 inch totals (150 to 225 mm) producing life threatening flash flooding.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT 15 August 2024 Update:
Ernesto has been ingesting some dry air that is slowing intensification, but Ernesto is a large and dangerous hurricane that will pass close to if not directly over Bermuda starting late Friday into the weekend. Preps to protect life and property there should be underway.
Ciel
5:30PM EDT 14 August 2024 Update:
Ernesto became a hurricane this morning, the third of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, just four other years in the satellite era (since 1966), have had three or more hurricanes in the basin by August 14: 1966, 1968, 1995 and 2005.
The cyclone is forecast to become and appears well on its way to becoming a Major within the next 48 hours, with a track that threatens a direct or indirect strike to the small island nation of Bermuda as soon as Friday night or early Saturday.
Ciel
8:10PM EDT 12 August 2024 Update:
Invest PTC FIVE developed a sufficiently well defined circulation this afternoon to be considered a tropical cyclone, and with sustained surface winds of about 40 MPH, NHC upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth officiated tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, ten days ahead of the climatolgical average of August 22nd.
Newly named Ernesto is still in rather formative stages and the center seems to be a bit jumpy. This could result in some adjustments being made to initial positions and ultimately future track and intensity. Recon is now aggressively flying the cyclone and this invaluable data will be fed into models going forward.
Interests from the Antilles to Bermuda may want to prepare for a potentially stout tropical storm, and perhaps later in the forecast period, very strong hurricane.
Ciel
7:30AM EDT 12 August 2024 Update:
Development continues to be slow this morning and the center may wind up being relocated a bit to the northwest later today, but a tropical storm is forecast to form likely tomorrow morning, and thus the watches have been extended to include the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, after this the system is forecast to turn north either just before or over Puerto Rico and head toward the north. Bermuda is in the cone later on.
Tropical Storm warnings are now up for St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin,and St. Barthelemy
Original Update:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 has formed east of the Leeward Caribbean Islands, and tropical storm watches are up for Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Martin with watches possible for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later.
It's forecast to only reach tropical storm strength before these islands currently. The next name on the list is Ernesto.
Beyond this it's forecast to recurve into the Atlantic east of the Bahamas and the US mainland, although Bermuda should watch it closely.
Satellite imagery suggests that Ernesto may be intensifying a bit heading into a direct strike on Bermuda. Given Ernesto's very large windfield and off and on intrusions of dry air, this may not necessarily result in an increase in maximum sustained winds about its core, but could alternatively create a more sustained strong to damaging wind event. Either could be of concern.
Of greatest concern is likely to be the unusually high rainfall totals that are expected, with widespread 6 to 9 inch totals (150 to 225 mm) producing life threatening flash flooding.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT 15 August 2024 Update:
Ernesto has been ingesting some dry air that is slowing intensification, but Ernesto is a large and dangerous hurricane that will pass close to if not directly over Bermuda starting late Friday into the weekend. Preps to protect life and property there should be underway.
Ciel
5:30PM EDT 14 August 2024 Update:
Ernesto became a hurricane this morning, the third of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. According to Dr. Philip Klotzbach, just four other years in the satellite era (since 1966), have had three or more hurricanes in the basin by August 14: 1966, 1968, 1995 and 2005.
The cyclone is forecast to become and appears well on its way to becoming a Major within the next 48 hours, with a track that threatens a direct or indirect strike to the small island nation of Bermuda as soon as Friday night or early Saturday.
Ciel
8:10PM EDT 12 August 2024 Update:
Invest PTC FIVE developed a sufficiently well defined circulation this afternoon to be considered a tropical cyclone, and with sustained surface winds of about 40 MPH, NHC upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Ernesto, the fifth officiated tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, ten days ahead of the climatolgical average of August 22nd.
Newly named Ernesto is still in rather formative stages and the center seems to be a bit jumpy. This could result in some adjustments being made to initial positions and ultimately future track and intensity. Recon is now aggressively flying the cyclone and this invaluable data will be fed into models going forward.
Interests from the Antilles to Bermuda may want to prepare for a potentially stout tropical storm, and perhaps later in the forecast period, very strong hurricane.
Ciel
7:30AM EDT 12 August 2024 Update:
Development continues to be slow this morning and the center may wind up being relocated a bit to the northwest later today, but a tropical storm is forecast to form likely tomorrow morning, and thus the watches have been extended to include the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, after this the system is forecast to turn north either just before or over Puerto Rico and head toward the north. Bermuda is in the cone later on.
Tropical Storm warnings are now up for St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Martin,and St. Barthelemy
Original Update:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 has formed east of the Leeward Caribbean Islands, and tropical storm watches are up for Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Martin with watches possible for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later.
It's forecast to only reach tropical storm strength before these islands currently. The next name on the list is Ernesto.
Beyond this it's forecast to recurve into the Atlantic east of the Bahamas and the US mainland, although Bermuda should watch it closely.
Ernesto Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ernesto
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Ernesto
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ernesto
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ernesto (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Ernesto
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ernesto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ernesto -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Bermuda Newspapers/Media:
Hurricane Debby
Posted: 01:31 PM 02 August 2024 | 14 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 04:16 PM 11-Aug EDT
2PM EDT 11 August 2024 Update
The area east of the Caribbean Islands is up to a 90% chance to develop and 80% within the next 48 hours, so it's likely that this will form later tonight or tomorrow and approach the Leeward islands of the Caribbean. Those in the Islands should monitor it closely. Beyond this it's most likely to stay east of the Bahamas and US mainland, but could impact Bermuda. Those in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos and Bermuda should watch this system closely.
7AM EDT 07 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby is much weaker, but still offshore this morning of South Carolina, after injecting quite a bit of dry air into the center. There is still rainfall from the outer bands of the system reaching as far south as St. Augustine north to Eastern North Carolina, but much less concentrated that before. Debby will likely maintain or slightly strengthen where it is at currently until the forecast landfall sometime tomorrow morning. The strongest winds are on the southeast side over the water currently.
Flooding rains will still be an issue in a few areas.
The other area being watched is losing its chances to develop and now only has a 10% chance to develop.
7AM EDT 06 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby is in southeastern Georgia just west of Savannah and is expected to move offshore this morning after landfalling at Steinhatchee, FL as a category 1 Hurricane at 7AM August 5th, It has been weakening since, and most of the rain is now on the northeastern quadrant. and reaching well into South Carolina bringing flooding rainfall. A few tail bands still extend well to the south.
Debby is forecast to exit land this morning near Savannah and emerge into the Atlantic waters for a day or so, stop and then landfall again along the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, possibly a little stronger than now and drift north inland bringing more rainfall inland.
Another wave has a 30% chance to develop in the Caribbean, but has some hurdles for doing so.
11PM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Debby has become a hurricane, the second hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Despite a limited runway of water before landfall, the internal structure of the cyclone continues to improve tonight, and it is still very possible for a strong Cat 1-2 at landfall. Regardless, Debby remains a large and very dangerous tropical cyclone with unusually high potential to produce catastrophic inland flooding and long-lasting surge.
11AM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Rapid Intensification is now the official forecast heading into landfall, and there is even some possibility that Debby Majors. In addition to these strong hurricane-force winds, dangerous surge, tornadoes and extreme flooding are likely.
Preps to protect life and property should be hurried to completion at this time.
7:30AM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Up to 60mph winds at 8am.
Tropical Storm Debby is slowly strengthening, from a rather broad/sloppy area and is now a 50mph Tropical Storm west of Florida. Bands of rain are moving in along southwest Florida, and with the system trying to consolidate the rain will be delayed in other parts of Florida until later today.
Landfall is expected to be tomorrow afternoon along the Big Bend as a 85mph hurricane with surge up to 10 feet in some areas there, then move slowly across Florida and Georgia toward the Atlantic and be near Savannah and around the South Carolina Lowcountry by Wednesday into Thursday causing a lot of flooding rain and surge along there.
5:00PM EDT 03 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby has formed with 40mph winds north of Cuba. A hurricane is now forecast before landfall in the Big Bend.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.
7:45AM EDT 03 August 2024 Update
Hurricane Watches are now up from from Aucilla River just east of St. Marks, FL to Yankeetown, Florida South of Cedar Key as there exists potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before landfall. Tropical Depression Four is nearing the western Cuba coastline an expected cross over Cuba and Havana by early Afternoon and enter the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the rest of the west coast of Florida. The next name is Debby.
Once landfall happens it's expected to slowly move over Florida and Georgia and reemerge into the Atlantic where it could slow down greatly. Those in Southeast Georgia, and the South Carolina Lowcountry as well as eastern North Carolina should be watching this very closely as this system may be near/over you for several days according to the forecast, and if it stalls over water the potential is there for it to restrengthen.
11PM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
Tropical Depression Four has formed south of Cuba, with Tropical Storm watches and warnings up for parts of the Keys and West coast of Florida currently. The hurricane center calls out in the official discussion that it's possible for a hurricane to form before landfall, if the system maintains itself slightly more than expected. However the current forecast calls for just shy of hurricane with 70mph winds before landfall somewhere in the cone region. Those in the cone need to monitor this closely.
8PM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
It is becoming apparent that development may be starting off the southern coast of Cuba.
Throughout the day, the system overall has been tugged between competing lobes along its wave axis that crosses the island nation from south to north, with its mean center being tracked by NHC. Increasingly, it appears that the aid of a richer, more unobstructed moist inflow from the south and west is benefiting the southern lobe, and unless this gives up the ghost, merges, or loops around cyclonically to the north, genesis may happen there. This would likely shift the forecast track to the left and increase the odds of a system with more time over very warm water, and may even increase the risk of a crawl or stall prior to or just around the time of landfall.
It is important to keep in mind that forecasting the track and intensity of a potential tropical cyclone is often less reliable than forecasting a bona fide cyclone, and those with interests to the left of the recent NHC cones may want to begin paying much more attention.
Original Update
Advisories have begun for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. Keep in mind, this is the first of many, and could be taken with a grain of salt. While modeling has come together much more with a forecast that cuts across the Florida peninsula and lands back over water along the southeast coast, these model runs are made on a system that 1. Has not yet formed (The P in PTC FOUR does stand for Potential) and 2. Has yet to have had the benefit of recon missions and 3. Is being made for a system still largely over land (Cuba now).
At present, NHC does have a forecast out that is nonetheless of relative confidence. NHC KEY MESSAGES are as follows:
For some deeper model talk as well as speculation as to where exactly FOUR will form and will be going, join us in the Debby Forecast Lounge
And for more official links
The area east of the Caribbean Islands is up to a 90% chance to develop and 80% within the next 48 hours, so it's likely that this will form later tonight or tomorrow and approach the Leeward islands of the Caribbean. Those in the Islands should monitor it closely. Beyond this it's most likely to stay east of the Bahamas and US mainland, but could impact Bermuda. Those in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos and Bermuda should watch this system closely.
7AM EDT 07 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby is much weaker, but still offshore this morning of South Carolina, after injecting quite a bit of dry air into the center. There is still rainfall from the outer bands of the system reaching as far south as St. Augustine north to Eastern North Carolina, but much less concentrated that before. Debby will likely maintain or slightly strengthen where it is at currently until the forecast landfall sometime tomorrow morning. The strongest winds are on the southeast side over the water currently.
Flooding rains will still be an issue in a few areas.
The other area being watched is losing its chances to develop and now only has a 10% chance to develop.
7AM EDT 06 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby is in southeastern Georgia just west of Savannah and is expected to move offshore this morning after landfalling at Steinhatchee, FL as a category 1 Hurricane at 7AM August 5th, It has been weakening since, and most of the rain is now on the northeastern quadrant. and reaching well into South Carolina bringing flooding rainfall. A few tail bands still extend well to the south.
Debby is forecast to exit land this morning near Savannah and emerge into the Atlantic waters for a day or so, stop and then landfall again along the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, possibly a little stronger than now and drift north inland bringing more rainfall inland.
Another wave has a 30% chance to develop in the Caribbean, but has some hurdles for doing so.
11PM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Debby has become a hurricane, the second hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Despite a limited runway of water before landfall, the internal structure of the cyclone continues to improve tonight, and it is still very possible for a strong Cat 1-2 at landfall. Regardless, Debby remains a large and very dangerous tropical cyclone with unusually high potential to produce catastrophic inland flooding and long-lasting surge.
11AM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Rapid Intensification is now the official forecast heading into landfall, and there is even some possibility that Debby Majors. In addition to these strong hurricane-force winds, dangerous surge, tornadoes and extreme flooding are likely.
Preps to protect life and property should be hurried to completion at this time.
7:30AM EDT 04 August 2024 Update
Up to 60mph winds at 8am.
Tropical Storm Debby is slowly strengthening, from a rather broad/sloppy area and is now a 50mph Tropical Storm west of Florida. Bands of rain are moving in along southwest Florida, and with the system trying to consolidate the rain will be delayed in other parts of Florida until later today.
Landfall is expected to be tomorrow afternoon along the Big Bend as a 85mph hurricane with surge up to 10 feet in some areas there, then move slowly across Florida and Georgia toward the Atlantic and be near Savannah and around the South Carolina Lowcountry by Wednesday into Thursday causing a lot of flooding rain and surge along there.
5:00PM EDT 03 August 2024 Update
Tropical Storm Debby has formed with 40mph winds north of Cuba. A hurricane is now forecast before landfall in the Big Bend.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and for the Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.
7:45AM EDT 03 August 2024 Update
Hurricane Watches are now up from from Aucilla River just east of St. Marks, FL to Yankeetown, Florida South of Cedar Key as there exists potential for the system to reach hurricane strength before landfall. Tropical Depression Four is nearing the western Cuba coastline an expected cross over Cuba and Havana by early Afternoon and enter the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the rest of the west coast of Florida. The next name is Debby.
Once landfall happens it's expected to slowly move over Florida and Georgia and reemerge into the Atlantic where it could slow down greatly. Those in Southeast Georgia, and the South Carolina Lowcountry as well as eastern North Carolina should be watching this very closely as this system may be near/over you for several days according to the forecast, and if it stalls over water the potential is there for it to restrengthen.
11PM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
Tropical Depression Four has formed south of Cuba, with Tropical Storm watches and warnings up for parts of the Keys and West coast of Florida currently. The hurricane center calls out in the official discussion that it's possible for a hurricane to form before landfall, if the system maintains itself slightly more than expected. However the current forecast calls for just shy of hurricane with 70mph winds before landfall somewhere in the cone region. Those in the cone need to monitor this closely.
8PM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
It is becoming apparent that development may be starting off the southern coast of Cuba.
Throughout the day, the system overall has been tugged between competing lobes along its wave axis that crosses the island nation from south to north, with its mean center being tracked by NHC. Increasingly, it appears that the aid of a richer, more unobstructed moist inflow from the south and west is benefiting the southern lobe, and unless this gives up the ghost, merges, or loops around cyclonically to the north, genesis may happen there. This would likely shift the forecast track to the left and increase the odds of a system with more time over very warm water, and may even increase the risk of a crawl or stall prior to or just around the time of landfall.
It is important to keep in mind that forecasting the track and intensity of a potential tropical cyclone is often less reliable than forecasting a bona fide cyclone, and those with interests to the left of the recent NHC cones may want to begin paying much more attention.
Original Update
Advisories have begun for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. Keep in mind, this is the first of many, and could be taken with a grain of salt. While modeling has come together much more with a forecast that cuts across the Florida peninsula and lands back over water along the southeast coast, these model runs are made on a system that 1. Has not yet formed (The P in PTC FOUR does stand for Potential) and 2. Has yet to have had the benefit of recon missions and 3. Is being made for a system still largely over land (Cuba now).
At present, NHC does have a forecast out that is nonetheless of relative confidence. NHC KEY MESSAGES are as follows:
Quote:
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of Florida over the weekend.
4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.
For some deeper model talk as well as speculation as to where exactly FOUR will form and will be going, join us in the Debby Forecast Lounge
And for more official links
Debby Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Debby
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Debby
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Debby
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Debby (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Debby
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Debby
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Debby -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of PTC5
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for PTC5
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of PTC5
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of PTC5 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of PTC5
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for PTC5
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on PTC5 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
Coastal South Carolina Media:
94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio
Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map
Watching an area into August
Posted: 07:07 AM 27 July 2024 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 08:12 AM 02-Aug EDT
10:20AM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories will begin at 11AM for 97L with Tropical Storm watches up for parts of Florida.
8AM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
The area (Invest 97L) being watched is now over Cuba and expected to move into the Gulf sometime tomorrow. Chances are up to 90% of formation in the next 7 days (60% chance within the next 48 hours). The main impacts are very heavy rain for parts of Cuba, Bahamas and Florida. The chance for a stall over the Gulf has gone down. The main rain days for Florida are Saturday (more afternoon and onward) and Sunday. Beyond that depends on how fast the system moves. Those in the Southeast, including Georgia, South and North Carolina should also watch the system closely. The system won't be able to form a true center until it bypasses Cuba, so exact track won't mean much, and it's unlikely to develop beyond a tropical storm in the Gulf. The next name is Debby.
Tropical Storm watches could go up later today, likely with the issuance of a Potential Cyclone Advisory. (How they issue watches/warnings before a depression or storm initially forms)
8AM EDT 01 August 2024 Update
The area of interest is generally near Hispaniola (DR/Haiti) and still large and unorganized, however convection and upwelling has increased quite a bit since Wednesday. Still at a 60% chance to develop over the next 7 days, it has a 20% chance to develop within 48 hours (Which will likely go up even more by tomorrow). The system could form near Florida or in the eastern Gulf and beyond then the models differ a lot except for a key point that the system may get blocked from moving north and stall out or meander somewhere either over land or the Gulf of Mexico, or both.
Since nothing has developed and there's the potential for a blocking (Col) high that has the potential to stall the area out makes the forecast extremely difficult, and it may mean relatively quick watches/warnings and changes over the next few days, so it's important to keep watch on it very closely, watches could come as early as tomorrow night for some parts if needed. If it stalls over the Gulf, there is a chance it could get stronger. Regardless of strength, the potential for flooding rainfall in Florida and Southeastern/Gulf states is there. Those in
some of the Greater Antilles Caribbean islands are seeing that rainfall now.
8AM EDT 31 July 2024 Update
The area now in the Northeastern Bahamas still has a 60% chance to develop later in the week (Friday night or Saturday) The large, but dry wave is slowly, but surely gaining moisture as it moves westward and is currently bringing some rain to the Leeward islands. The future of the system depends a great deal on how organized at gets, and exactly where, which is reflected in the National Hurricane Center's formation region. (This isnt' a track cone) Where it could develop in the Bahamas, move into Florida or into the Gulf, with the odds only slightly favoring it to move east of Florida) It's unlikely to develop quickly however, thus the most likely outcome is a lot of rain for the areas it goes over.
This means In the short term, Leeward islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto rico will see just rain from the disorganized system, as it moves toward Hispaniola it will likely bring rain there as well, entering the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, is the area where it could start to develop, but while over there it would bring much rainfall which likely will spread into Florida. Later Saturday and Sunday in particular seems like a very wet day for Florida, beyond that too soon to say really how much, if, and where the system develops. But it's important to be aware of from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas, including Florida. If it were to develop closer to Florida, a Tropical Depression or Storm is possible. The next name on the list is Debby.
8AM EDT 30 July 2024 Update
The area in the Central Atlantic now has a 60% chance to develop later this week (closer to this weekend). Since it's a delayed development situation, those in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Florida, and the Southeastern US should monitor the progress of this system. The biggest visible with the large wave, a large and broad spinning area is now visible on satellite, but it's still void of much convection. It has the potential to be a large rain maker for Florida and the Bahamas, and possibly elsewhere. Models are mixed on the system from Western Gulf to east of the Carolinas, with a few over Florida as well, with the added twist of a blocking high occurring which may stall the system out somewhere close to or over land and cause it to move erratically. With nothing developed and unlikely to until late in the week there's still not a great deal of confidence. It's likely to remain a weak system at least in the short term.
8AM EDT 29 July 2024 Update
The area in the Central Atlantic is now up to a 50% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and if it does, may not develop until later in week when it's closer toward the Greater Antilles or Bahamas. That means no invests for a while either, and the models are split between the weaker ones entering the Gulf and most others staying east of Florida and near or just east of the Bahamas. Staying east of Florida is currently most likely. However, it's worth checking over the next few days since it's nowhere near developed.
The area currently is void of much convection and it's dry, but is expected to move into an area where it will likely gain convection later in the week.
8PM EDT 27 July 2024 Update
The Area in the Central Atlantic is now up to a 40% chance to develop over the next 7 days, those in the Leeward islands should watch closely, but it's unlikely to develop in the near term until it gets further west toward the middle of the week. If it were to approach the mainland US the timeframe would be Sunday-Monday or Tuesday Aug 4-5. However it's too early to say where it will go until it develops (if it does) and where. It's currently not being tracked as an invest area.
Originial Update
There's a new area in the Main Development Region of the Central Atlantic that's being watched by the National Hurricane Center with currently a 30% chance for development. It's not currently being tracked as an invest area. This area is moving fast, so development is more likely later than earlier next week. Potential timing is Thur-Friday for Lesser Antilles, and then moving closer to the west, if it were to affect the US it would likely be in the Saturday-Monday time frame starting August 3rd.
Where exactly could be the Gulf to out to sea since we have no invest much less a developed storm yet. And likely won't develop, if at all, until near or just past the islands,
There's a good amount of time to watch this as it moves generally westward.
Additionally another possibly short lived area may head up toward New England early next week, and has a small chance to become subtropical.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories will begin at 11AM for 97L with Tropical Storm watches up for parts of Florida.
8AM EDT 02 August 2024 Update
The area (Invest 97L) being watched is now over Cuba and expected to move into the Gulf sometime tomorrow. Chances are up to 90% of formation in the next 7 days (60% chance within the next 48 hours). The main impacts are very heavy rain for parts of Cuba, Bahamas and Florida. The chance for a stall over the Gulf has gone down. The main rain days for Florida are Saturday (more afternoon and onward) and Sunday. Beyond that depends on how fast the system moves. Those in the Southeast, including Georgia, South and North Carolina should also watch the system closely. The system won't be able to form a true center until it bypasses Cuba, so exact track won't mean much, and it's unlikely to develop beyond a tropical storm in the Gulf. The next name is Debby.
Tropical Storm watches could go up later today, likely with the issuance of a Potential Cyclone Advisory. (How they issue watches/warnings before a depression or storm initially forms)
8AM EDT 01 August 2024 Update
The area of interest is generally near Hispaniola (DR/Haiti) and still large and unorganized, however convection and upwelling has increased quite a bit since Wednesday. Still at a 60% chance to develop over the next 7 days, it has a 20% chance to develop within 48 hours (Which will likely go up even more by tomorrow). The system could form near Florida or in the eastern Gulf and beyond then the models differ a lot except for a key point that the system may get blocked from moving north and stall out or meander somewhere either over land or the Gulf of Mexico, or both.
Since nothing has developed and there's the potential for a blocking (Col) high that has the potential to stall the area out makes the forecast extremely difficult, and it may mean relatively quick watches/warnings and changes over the next few days, so it's important to keep watch on it very closely, watches could come as early as tomorrow night for some parts if needed. If it stalls over the Gulf, there is a chance it could get stronger. Regardless of strength, the potential for flooding rainfall in Florida and Southeastern/Gulf states is there. Those in
some of the Greater Antilles Caribbean islands are seeing that rainfall now.
8AM EDT 31 July 2024 Update
The area now in the Northeastern Bahamas still has a 60% chance to develop later in the week (Friday night or Saturday) The large, but dry wave is slowly, but surely gaining moisture as it moves westward and is currently bringing some rain to the Leeward islands. The future of the system depends a great deal on how organized at gets, and exactly where, which is reflected in the National Hurricane Center's formation region. (This isnt' a track cone) Where it could develop in the Bahamas, move into Florida or into the Gulf, with the odds only slightly favoring it to move east of Florida) It's unlikely to develop quickly however, thus the most likely outcome is a lot of rain for the areas it goes over.
This means In the short term, Leeward islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto rico will see just rain from the disorganized system, as it moves toward Hispaniola it will likely bring rain there as well, entering the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, is the area where it could start to develop, but while over there it would bring much rainfall which likely will spread into Florida. Later Saturday and Sunday in particular seems like a very wet day for Florida, beyond that too soon to say really how much, if, and where the system develops. But it's important to be aware of from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas, including Florida. If it were to develop closer to Florida, a Tropical Depression or Storm is possible. The next name on the list is Debby.
8AM EDT 30 July 2024 Update
The area in the Central Atlantic now has a 60% chance to develop later this week (closer to this weekend). Since it's a delayed development situation, those in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Florida, and the Southeastern US should monitor the progress of this system. The biggest visible with the large wave, a large and broad spinning area is now visible on satellite, but it's still void of much convection. It has the potential to be a large rain maker for Florida and the Bahamas, and possibly elsewhere. Models are mixed on the system from Western Gulf to east of the Carolinas, with a few over Florida as well, with the added twist of a blocking high occurring which may stall the system out somewhere close to or over land and cause it to move erratically. With nothing developed and unlikely to until late in the week there's still not a great deal of confidence. It's likely to remain a weak system at least in the short term.
8AM EDT 29 July 2024 Update
The area in the Central Atlantic is now up to a 50% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and if it does, may not develop until later in week when it's closer toward the Greater Antilles or Bahamas. That means no invests for a while either, and the models are split between the weaker ones entering the Gulf and most others staying east of Florida and near or just east of the Bahamas. Staying east of Florida is currently most likely. However, it's worth checking over the next few days since it's nowhere near developed.
The area currently is void of much convection and it's dry, but is expected to move into an area where it will likely gain convection later in the week.
8PM EDT 27 July 2024 Update
The Area in the Central Atlantic is now up to a 40% chance to develop over the next 7 days, those in the Leeward islands should watch closely, but it's unlikely to develop in the near term until it gets further west toward the middle of the week. If it were to approach the mainland US the timeframe would be Sunday-Monday or Tuesday Aug 4-5. However it's too early to say where it will go until it develops (if it does) and where. It's currently not being tracked as an invest area.
Originial Update
There's a new area in the Main Development Region of the Central Atlantic that's being watched by the National Hurricane Center with currently a 30% chance for development. It's not currently being tracked as an invest area. This area is moving fast, so development is more likely later than earlier next week. Potential timing is Thur-Friday for Lesser Antilles, and then moving closer to the west, if it were to affect the US it would likely be in the Saturday-Monday time frame starting August 3rd.
Where exactly could be the Gulf to out to sea since we have no invest much less a developed storm yet. And likely won't develop, if at all, until near or just past the islands,
There's a good amount of time to watch this as it moves generally westward.
Additionally another possibly short lived area may head up toward New England early next week, and has a small chance to become subtropical.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2024&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of PTC4
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for PTC4
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of PTC4
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of PTC4 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of PTC4
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for PTC4
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on PTC4 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
Tampa Area Media:
Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:
General Links
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
Skeetobite's storm track maps]
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF Tropical Tidbits model page (GFS + more)
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams) , Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com, WXRisk, TropicalAtlantic, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
Skeetobite's storm track maps]
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF Tropical Tidbits model page (GFS + more)
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams) , Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com, WXRisk, TropicalAtlantic, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
